Куда вложить деньги? Инвестирование в интернете. Вложение средств в pamm-счета. Блог памм-инвестора.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet supports the European Financial Stability Facility taking on the task of capping yields. Photographer: Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg

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Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Laurent Fransolet, head of European fixed income strategy at Barclays Capital, talks about the future of the European Central Bank's bond purchase program. Fransolet also discussed Spanish bonds before an auction today with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television's "On The Move." (Source: Bloomberg)

ECB Seeks to Shed ‘Uncomfortable’ Bond-Buying Duty

The European Central Bank headquarters, center, in Frankfurt. Photographer: Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg

The European Central Bank is eager for Europe’s rescue fund to take responsibility for buying government bonds. Germany, though, may resist the switch.
“The ECB has always been uncomfortable with the purchases and it really wants out now,” said James Nixon, a former ECB forecaster who now works as co-chief European economist at Societe Generale in London. “It wants to go back to the day job of keeping a lid on inflation, and the program is starting to interfere with its monetary policy operations.”
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet supports the European Financial Stability Facility taking on the task of capping yields. The central bank has spent 76.5 billion euros ($106 billion) buying the debt of Europe’s most-distressed nations. The EFSF, though, lacks the legal authority to purchase debt, according to a German government official who briefed reporters yesterday ahead of a Feb. 4 summit meeting.
Central bankers are pushing governments to take more responsibility for solving Europe’s debt crisis, seeking to scale back emergency measures that risk stoking inflation. Germany wants to make additional bailout efforts conditional on stricter control of countries’ finances, according to four officials involved in bailout talks who declined to be identified because the deliberations are private.
‘Bargaining Chip’
“Germany, as Europe’s paymaster, can use the EFSF bond purchases as a bargaining chip to put pressure on the periphery countries to get their house in order,” said Nicolas Doisy, a former French Treasury official who now works at CA Chevreux in Paris. Germany “can twist Spain’s or Portugal’s arm more than the ECB ever could, because you’d have governments talking to governments and that will also help drive down spreads.”
Europe’s leaders are debating how to expand the 440 billion-euro rescue fund. Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said yesterday he’s confident of reaching a “comprehensive” agreement next month. “The current market situation is one of expectations,” Papaconstantinou said. “It would be a big mistake to conclude an agreement that falls short of these expectations.”
In the past three weeks, four ECB policy makers and private sector executives including Deutsche Bank AG’s Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackerman have backed the mooted EFSF bond-purchase plan. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said the decision is “better left to finance ministers than bankers and advisers.”
Mission Creep
“The list of demands on what the EFSF should do is getting longer and longer, and it may simply not be big enough to facilitate all those,” said Juergen Michels, chief euro-area economist at Citigroup Inc in London. “Let’s not forget that the original remit was to make the fund bigger so it could bail out Spain if needed. While the ECB demands may be valid, the fund may not be big enough.”
Bonds have rallied this week on investor optimism that the aid package will expand by enough to halt the debt crisis. Spain’s 10-year yield has declined to about 5.07 percent from 5.45 percent, while Portuguese yields have dropped more than 20 basis points to 6.82 percent. The premium investors demand to own Greek debt rather than German bunds has dropped to a three- month low of about 760.
The ECB started buying government bonds in May, an unprecedented move that drew criticism from council members Axel Weber and Juergen Stark, who said supporting the market for too long could fuel price increases and let profligate nations off the hook.
Inflation Drain
To stop its purchases boosting money supply and stoking inflation, the ECB each week drains the liquidity created by offering banks seven-day term deposits. This week, it failed to fully neutralize the liquidity created by its bond purchases for the third time since the program began.
Last month, Trichet stepped up his inflation-fighting rhetoric after December inflation unexpectedly exceeded the bank’s 2 percent limit for the first time in more than two years. It accelerated to 2.4 percent in January. He may reiterate calls for the EFSF to buy bonds at a press conference today in Frankfurt following the monthly policy meeting.
Central bank funding is becoming “more sharply skewed toward a handful of addicted banks” which can’t obtain money- market funding, said Nixon at SocGen. The ECB’s sterilization over the past two weeks left “the money markets short of funds” Nixon said, pushing up overnight borrowing rates to 1.31 percent on Feb. 1, the highest since June 2009.
Shifting the source of bond purchases may not underpin the fixed-income market. The buybacks haven’t “reined in spreads to any sufficient degree,” said Christoph Rieger, head of fixed income strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The market doesn’t really gain that much, since the EFSF has to go and raise the funds while the ECB can use central bank money.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Gabi Thesing in London at gthesing@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Gilbert at magilbert@bloomberg.net

English Signals New Zealand Fiscal Tightening Lessens Need for Rate Rise

Bill English, New Zealand's finance and deputy prime minister. Photographer: Mark Coote/Bloomberg

New Zealand’s finance minister signaled that his government’s steps to shrink a fiscal deficit should reduce the need for monetary tightening by the central bank and ease pressure on nation’s exchange rate.
“We are encouraged by the Reserve Bank governor who said a number of times that if fiscal policy carried more of the load then monetary policy wouldn’t have to carry as much,” Bill English, who also serves as deputy prime minister, said in an interview in his office in Wellington today. English added that the current exchange rate for the New Zealand dollar is an “impediment” for the country’s exports.
Traders today scaled back bets on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates this year after a government report showed fewer jobs than forecast were generated in the fourth quarter. The one-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, which is sensitive to interest-rate expectations, tumbled the most seven weeks, to 3.22 percent, compared with the RBNZ’s benchmark official cash rate of 3 percent.
New Zealand’s dollar has in the past half decade averaged a rate that’s effectively the strongest in three decades, English said. It’s traded at a mean of 69.30 U.S. cents over the past five years, compared with 57.19 cents the previous five. After his remarks were published, the currency known as the kiwi extended declines, trading at 77.13 cents as of 5:40 a.m. in London from 77.33 cents yesterday in New York.
Rising Unemployment
The jobless rate increased to 6.8 percent from 6.4 percent three months earlier, increasing the risk that the economy shrank for a second straight quarter in October to December. The median estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 6.5 percent rate.
“We can’t see a tightening before the September policy statement meeting and remain alert for the prospect that the next move in the cash rate could be down,” Darren Gibbs, chief New Zealand economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Auckland, said in an e-mailed note after the employment report. “Based on the indicators available to date, we think that the economy probably contracted 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter.”
English said it will be up to “statisticians” to decide whether there was a recession. Growth has been hurt by losses in construction and retailing jobs as households start to boost saving, he said.
Warehouse Group Ltd., the nation’s largest discount retailer, last month forecast a decline in first-half profit after sales dropped.
Shift to Savings
“Consumers clearly remain even more focused than we predicted on strengthening household balance sheets,” Warehouse Chief Executive Officer Ian Morrice said in a statement.
The move to boost household savings and shrink the public deficit will help the economy shift away from reliance on consumers and the government, added English, 49, a former chief of the ruling party when it was in opposition.
Prime Minister John Key last week pledged to cut new spending this year, helping return the budget to surplus a year earlier than previously forecast. The government expects to achieve a surplus in the year ending June 30, 2015, Key said.
“What we need to do is ensure that government behavior isn’t putting upward pressure on interest or exchange rates,” English said in the interview in his office, in a wing of the New Zealand parliament known as the beehive for its appearance.
Looking at prospects for the kiwi in 2011, he said “it’s hard to see the general pressures that would push it up.”
Bollard’s Take
RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard told reporters on Jan. 28 that a faster elimination of the deficit “means less stimulus in the economy. And all other things being equal, which they never are, it means that one would be able to delay monetary policy tightening longer than would otherwise have been the case.”
New Zealand’s government has weathered the economic deterioration, with its popularity at 55 percent compared with the main opposition Labour Party at 29 percent, according to a Roy Morgan Research poll of 1,800 voters last month. Key yesterday called a general election for Nov. 26, saying the campaign will be about which party has a plan for jobs and income growth.
English indicated the biggest dangers for New Zealand include a slowdown in China, house-price bubble bursting in Australia or a spreading in the European sovereign-debt crisis.
“Commodity prices are starting to look like a spike,” he added. “If they can go up as sharply as they have in the last few months, they can come down.”
Dairy Rally
Milk prices are soaring at a 7 percent monthly pace on top of an already “high” level, English said. Dairy products make up almost a quarter of the nation’s exports and Auckland-based Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd. is the world’s largest exporter of the goods. English also cited crude oil costs approaching $100 a barrel.
Commenting on wool, English signaled he wouldn’t oppose higher prices. Asked about an effort by farmers to organize a cartel, English welcomed the initiative while adding that the government won’t directly help it.
“In a number of our main export sectors -- being dairy, meat and wool -- there are tense but constructive discussions going on about how to commit capital in the right way to take advantage of the positive opportunities,” said English, who took office in November 2008. “It’s great that they are working on that stuff. We encourage it, but we’re not going to direct them.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Tracy Withers in Wellington at twithers@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephanie Phang at sphang@bloomberg.net

Trichet Fights to Curb Pay Pressures as Inflation Accelerates

By Jeff Black - Feb 3, 2011 2:47 PM GMT+0300

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Photographer: Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg

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Three weeks after Jean-Claude Trichet jolted financial markets with a threat to raise interest rates, the European Central Bank President has even more reason to talk tough on inflation.
The euro-area rate rose to 2.4 percent in January, the highest in more than two years, workers are demanding bigger pay increases in Germany, where import-price inflation is running at the fastest pace in 29 years, and political tensions in Egypt are stoking oil prices. The risk for Trichet is that his inflation-fighting rhetoric convinces investors the ECB will raise borrowing costs before Europe overcomes its debt crisis.
“It is a balancing act,” said Jens Sondergaard, senior European economist at Nomura International Plc in London. “He’s trying to speak to the unions, but not spook the markets. There’s a careful fine-tuning of expectations going on.”
The euro surged and bonds fell after Trichet on Jan. 13 pledged to do what’s necessary to keep a rein on inflation, signaling a shift in focus for the ECB. While several policy makers subsequently tried to damp expectations for higher rates, Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi reignited the debate last week with a warning that imported inflation can no longer be ignored.
The Frankfurt-based central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent today, according to all 58 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The announcement is due at 1:45 p.m. and Trichet will hold a press conference 45 minutes later. The euro fell 0.3 percent against the dollar to $1.3764 as of 12:44 p.m. today before the decision.
‘Policy Mistake’
Trichet said last month that while the jump inflation is “temporary,” risks to the price outlook “could move to the upside.” That prompted investors to bring forward expectations for an ECB rate increase to as soon as the third quarter, Eonia forward contracts show.
Economists expect a move in the fourth quarter, before the Federal Reserve, which is forecast to raise rates in the first quarter of 2012, according to Bloomberg surveys.
“Many investors are concerned with the risk that the ECB makes a policy mistake and raises rates too soon,” said David Owen, managing director at Jefferies International Ltd. in London. “A key issue for the ECB should remain the likely pace of activity. The weaker the economic recovery, the more likely the pickup we are seeing in inflation proves temporary.”
ECB Exit
Europe’s debt crisis may damp growth as governments across the region cut spending to rein in deficits. While retail sales in the 17-nations currency bloc unexpectedly fell in December, euro-area services and manufacturing industries expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated in January, led by surging output growth in Germany and France, London-based Markit Economics said today.
European leaders meet in Brussels tomorrow to discuss bolstering their response to the crisis, including a proposal to allow the European Financial Stability Facility to purchase government bonds.
Such a step may allow the ECB to call a halt to its own bond-buying program and proceed with an exit from the emergency measures it’s been forced to implement.
‘Rumbling’ Crisis
“If the sovereign debt crisis can be laid to rest, the ECB will probably want to reduce its accommodative measures,” said James Nixon, co-chief European economist at Societe Generale SA in London. “But it would be tough for the ECB to raise rates if the crisis is still rumbling along in the background.”
While policy makers have stressed the ECB’s key rate remains “appropriate,” signaling they don’t intend to raise it soon, Bini Smaghi said last week that the bank can’t ignore the impact on inflation of “a permanent and repeated increase in the prices of imported products.”
German import-price inflation accelerated to 12 percent in December, driven by soaring costs for commodities such as energy. ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said on Jan. 26 that the bank will “act” if needed to counter so-called second-round effects, when workers demand pay increases to compensate for higher living costs.
German chemical workers are seeking up to 7 percent more pay, and the country’s IG Metall union has asked for a 6 percent increase for workers at companies including Volkswagen AG.
Some economists expect the ECB to raise its 2011 inflation forecast next month to more than 2 percent -- its definition of price stability -- as energy and food prices continue to rise.
‘Difficult’ Number
“That’s a difficult number to deal with, especially when you have interest rates as low as the ECB has,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London.
The ECB last raised interest rates in July 2008, just as the global financial crisis was brewing, in a warning to unions and households not to seek recompense for faster inflation.
While it was forced to cut rates aggressively just three months later, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. threw the world economy into its deepest slump since World War II, the ECB nevertheless proved its resolve.
“The inflation monster is looking in through the window again,” said Juergen Michels, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in London. “The ECB has shown it is prepared to act to keep it out.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Black in Frankfurt at jblack25@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net

Экономисты Китая дают прогнозы для страны на 2011 год

21.01.2011 05:50, Пекин.

Экономический рост Китая в 2011 году замедлится, но в то же время стране удастся сдержать рост индекса потребительских цен. По оптимистичным прогнозам, к концу года он не превысит 4%, обобщает Государственное телевидение Китая мнение ряда экономистов страны.

Ведущий эксперт Центра развития при Госсовете КНР Ба Шусунь пронгозирует: "Думаю, что в этом году экономический рост Китая достигнет показателя между 9% и 10%, то есть будет ниже, чем в 2010. Индекс потребительских цен будет довольно высоким в первом полугодии, но к концу года постепенно снизится".

Член комитета по монетарной политике Народного банка КНР Ли Даокуй считает, что стоит ожидать роста ВВП в размере около 9,5%. Индекс потребительских цен будет около 3,9%. "Мы также ожидаем роста экспорта, однако не такого большого по сравнению с импортом", - сказал он.

Ведущий эксперт Академии макроэкономических исследований КНР Янь Иминь ожидает, что индекс потребительских цен Китая в 2011 году не превысит 3,5%. "Правительство Китая борется с излишком ликвидности и решит эту проблему. Однако не следует упускать из виду некоторые долгосрочные инфляционные факторы", - отметил аналитик.

Напомним, что согласно официальным данным в ушедшем 2010 году ВВП Китая увеличился на 10,3%. Индекс потребительских цен в стране набрал 3,3%.

Новости

Обама начинает "перестройку" в США

26.01.2011 06:45, Вашингтон. Президент США Барак Обама обращается к конгрессу со вторым докладом о положении в стране.

В частности, глава Белого дома предложил заморозить ежегодные государственные расходы США сроком на следующие пять лет.

"Предлагаю, начиная с этого года, заморозить ежегодные внутренние расходы на следующие пять лет", - заявил Обама, слова которого приводит "Интерфакс".

По мнению президента, "это позволит сократить дефицит государственного бюджета на $400 млрд в течение следующего десятилетия и приведет к самому низкому уровню в экономике США со времен президентства Дуайта Эйзенхауэра".

Обама призвал начать "перестройку" в США.

"Завоевание будущего, - сказал он, - заключается в перестройке Америки".

Обамы выступил за привлечение в США нового бизнеса, который связан с организацией быстрым и надежным перемещением людей, товаров и информации, начиная от высокоскоростного интернета до высокоскоростных железных дорог.

Он призвал совершенствовать транспортную инфраструктуру страны. По словам Обамы, времена, когда инраструктура США была лучшей в мире, прошли. В качестве примера он привел Южную Корею, страны Европы, Китай и Россию, которые вкладывают как в строительство дорог, так и интернет-сетей.

Американской инфраструктуре Обама поставил двойку с плюсом.

"В течение 25 лет наша цель - предоставить американцам 80-ти процентный доступ к высокоскоростным железным дорогам, которые позволят на половину сократить время поездок на автомобиле", - заявил президент США.

Куда вложить деньги? Инвестирование в интернете. Вложение средств в pamm-счета. Блог памм-инвестора.

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ECB Seeks to Shift `Uncomfortable' Bond Buying to Rescue Fund: Euro Credit

English Signals New Zealand Fiscal Tightening Lessens Need for Rate Rise

Trichet Fights to Curb Pay Pressures as Inflation Accelerates

Экономисты Китая дают прогнозы для страны на 2011 год

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